The rise in the presidential surveys of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is short of phenomenal and comes just two weeks before the May 9 elections. While the ratings of all his rivals are either sliding down or unmoving, the Davao demagogue has continued to surge and leave his rivals eating dust.
In the Pulse Asia survey, conducted from April 12-17 at about the same time the furor about his joke about the rape and murder of an Australian missionary in a Davao City jail in 1989 was starting to take shape, the tough-talking Duterte garnered 34 percent of the votes of some 4,000 respondents nationwide, and further widened his lead to 12 points over erstwhile frontrunner Sen. Grace Poe, who got 22 percent.
While Duterte gained two points from his previous rating of 32 percent in the April 5-12 poll, Poe, who has problems of her own regarding the citizenship and loyalty of her husband Neil Llamanzares, dropped by three points from 25 percent.
Vice President Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance, who had regained the lead just a few weeks ago, slipped one point and was three points behind Poe at third with 19 percent. Administration and Liberal Party candidate Mar Roxas, who has never gained any kind of momentum since the campaign began in February, remained flat and fourth with 18 percent.
Independent candidate Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago, who did well in the two presidential debates despite her poor health, was last with 2 percent and was not expected to move any higher with only two weeks to go.
Apparently, personal campaigning by President Aquino and his celebrity sister Kris has not helped the cause of Roxas. The funny thing is despite his languishing in the cellar for several months, Roxas insists he remains confident of victory and that the most important survey result is on May 9.
Either Roxas knows something we don’t know, or he’s just too arrogant to accept that he is headed to a resounding defeat, which can only mean an even more debilitating defeat for his friend and benefactor Aquino, who has repeatedly said that the May 9 election is a referendum on whether or not the people want his “daang matuwid” reform agenda to continue for another six years.
The biggest wonder here is that despite the obvious immorality and vulgarity of the tough-talking Duterte as shown by the remark that he made – taped on video and witnessed by millions of Filipinos courtesy of the internet – about the rape and murder of an Australian missionary, he continues to gain support from even the supposed decent sector of society.
The missionary, who was ministering in a prison in Davao City, was taken hostage, raped and killed during a riot by inmates in 1989.
“They raped all of the women … There was this Australian lay minister … when they took them out … I saw her face and I thought, ‘Son of a bitch. What a pity … they raped her, they all lined up. I was mad she was raped but she was so beautiful. I thought, the mayor should have been first,” Duterte was shown in the video telling a crowd of laughing supporters at a campaign rally.
The remark drew widespread indignation from his fellow candidates, women’s groups and from other celebrities in social media, including American Ambassador Philipp Goldberg and Australian Ambassador Amanda Gorley.
But Duterte obviously rode out the furor as he maintained a nine-point lead over Poe in the Social Weather Station survey, which was conducted on April 18-20, a day after the rape remark furor went viral on social media.
Support for Duterte, in fact, climbed to 33 percent in the SWS April 18-20 poll from 27 percent in the March 30-April 2 survey. Poe remained in second place with 24 percent voter preference with nine points separating the two. Roxas overtook Binay in third spot with 19 percent, from 18 percent in the previous survey. Binay was down to 14 percent, from 20 percent. Santiago had two percent voter preference.
How will they stop Duterte if not even a comment that “dapat nauna ang mayor” in taking liberty with the beautiful Australian missionary could stop his followers from choosing him over more decent and more qualified candidates?
At least in the vice presidential survey, Aquino’s party is getting a better deal with LP bet Rep. Leni Robredo, who for much of the time was also lagging behind independent candidate Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and erstwhile front runner Sen. Chiz Escudero, surging past her two more prominent rivals.
Robredo had 26 percent – up seven points – against Marcos’ 25 percent – down one point – in the SWS April 18-20 survey, but they are in a statistical tie for the top spot.
Escudero fell to third place with 18 percent from 21 percent, followed closely by Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano with 16 percent from 13 percent.
Senators Antonio Trillanes IV and Gregorio Honasan II remained at the bottom, garnering five percent and two percent, respectively.
However, in the SWS survey, conducted on April 12-17, Marcos remains the frontrunner. Marcos took the solo lead with 29 percent. Robredo was in second place with 23 percent, followed by Escudero, with 20 percent. Cayetano, Duterte’s running mate, had 16 percent. Honasan and Trillanes remained at the fifth and sixth slots with four percent and three percent, respectively.
Again, the constant call of President Aquino to condemn martial law by voting against Marcos seems to have fallen on deaf ears as the young Marcos has a six-point lead over Robredo in the SWs survey and statistically tied with the Bicol congresswoman in the Pulse Asia poll.
As I said in my March 7 column (“Why Duterte and Marcos are contenders”):
“It is a source of wonder why 30 years after Filipinos staged a peaceful revolt to oust a dictator, many of them now seem eager or willing to embrace a presidential candidate who threatens to impose a strongman rule and a vice presidential aspirant who is the namesake son of the supposedly hated leader they deposed in what is now known as People Power Revolution.
“I am surprised to this day that many people, even from the so-called civil society, are supporting either Duterte or Binay for president and Marcos for vice president. I know many doctors, lawyers, journalists and other professionals who swear to high heavens that Duterte is the kind of leader the country needs. Another group swears Marcos could make this country “great again.” And others believe that despite all the graft cases against him, Binay is the one who could lift the masses from poverty.
“One explanation is that some or many of the people who gathered on EDSA from Feb. 22 to 25, 1986 have been utterly disappointed that another set of oligarchs and dirty politicians have taken over the reins of the country and have not brought the hopes and aspirations of EDSA to reality. Thirty years later, the government is back to “business as usual” and the poor and the middle class remain ignored and forgotten.”
I can’t find of another reason why for all his faults, except that the people are so desperate for a new leader that they are willing to embrace Duterte, warts and all.
(valabelgas@aol.com)