The US-based think tank Global Source warns that the Philippines faces a rough road ahead toward the 2010 presidential elections, not only because of the looming global economic crisis, but also because of fresh initiatives to amend the constitution.
In a paper titled “Minefields on the Road to 2010,” Filipino economists Romeo Bernardo and Marie Christine-Tang said: “The road to the 2010 presidential election is not expected to be a smooth one.” The report merely reflected fears expressed by several political leaders and newspaper columnists in the past several months.
The year 2009 and the months leading to May 2010 will definitely see the country churning through rough waters, with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo expected to make a final push to stay in power beyond her constitutionally mandated term. Sen. Ping Lacson and former Senate President Franklin Drilon have been revealing numerous insertions in the proposed P1.4-trillion budget for 2009 that, they said, would probably be used for a renewed campaign to amend the 1987 Constitution.
Former Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz, one of Arroyo’s trusted advisers until he decided to cut clean by resigning from his defense post, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban, Sen. Mar Roxas and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, on the other hand, warn of a possible declaration of martial law by Arroyo to remain in power beyond 2010.
Just this week, Drilon revealed that a total of P45.8 billion in presidential pork barrel funds have been inserted into the 2009 budget under the pretense of providing emergency funds for the poor and to increase agricultural productivity.
Drilon said P13 billion has been earmarked for various programs under the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD). The “Malusog na Simula Yaman ng Bansa” nutrition program will get P4.3 billion, the “Pangtawid Pamilyang Pilipino” cash subsidy program P5 billion, the National Targeting System P1 billion, the Kalayaang Barangay P1 billion, the Kilos Asenso P375 million, and the calamity and contingency fund P2.8 billion.
Drilon added that the Department of Agriculture’s Ginintuang Masaganang Ani (GMA) program will get P7 billion next year, including P3.3 billion for – surprise, surprise – fertilizer subsidy. The Arroyo administration seems to ignore the fact that the first tranche of the fertilizer subsidy program in 2004 was so scandal-ridden, it caused the program’s point man, then Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante, to now suffer incarceration and a life of disgrace in America. In addition, P4.3 billion will go to farm-to-market roads, P12.5 billion for irrigation, and P9 billion for seeds.
It must be noted that the Commission on Audit has exposed various anomalies involving these same agriculture programs — the P728-million fertilizer scam, the P2-billion swine scam, the P3.1-billion irrigation scam, and the P218.7-million agriculture inputs scam. All of the funds for these programs were released just months prior to the 2004 presidential elections and the 2007 senatorial and local elections.
It is not coincidental that these huge budgetary allocations, which may be dispensed at the sole discretion of the Office of the President, are being made for the year preceding the 2010 presidential elections. However, I am more inclined to believe that the funds are intended for the final push for charter change (cha-cha), with the ultimate objective of keeping Arroyo and her allies in power beyond 2010.
In fact, Arroyo’s allies in the puppet House of Representatives have turned on the ignition for one of the three cha-cha trains. Even before Congress can constitute itself into a constituent assembly, the House committee on constitutional amendments, headed by La Union Rep. Victor Francisco Ortega, has already started hearing proposed amendments to the Constitution. Drilon said he was informed that the instructions of Speaker Prospero Nograles was for congressmen to consult with their constituencies on possible charter changes before Nov. 30.
Why Nograles set Nov. 30 as the deadline is unclear, but I would think that it is possible the idea is to preempt the convention of the ruling Lakas-Kampi party. Once an official candidate has been chosen by the ruling party, it may be more difficult to push the cha-cha, which will necessarily include a no-election scenario, since the chosen candidate and his or her allies will certainly oppose cha-cha moves vigorously.
At the same time, Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno is expected to revive the failed people’s initiative, which is the second cha-cha train. The 2006 initiative, which was spearheaded by Puno’s Sigaw ng Bayan and which claimed to have gathered 6.3 million signatures, was dismissed by the Supreme Court as a fraud. With nine vacancies to be filled up by Arroyo next year, Puno and his lackeys hope to face a friendlier court this time.
If these two approaches still fail, Arroyo can use his “influence” to prod Congress to call for an appointed constitutional convention. In fact, according to Justice Panganiban, Arroyo’s election lawyer, Romulo Macalintal has been floating the idea of an appointive constitutional convention, claiming that it has precedence in the 1987 constitutional convention, whose members were appointed by President Aquino. Macalintal conveniently forgot that President Aquino’s was a revolutionary government, having been installed after a coup and people’s uprising.
We all know that these three cha-cha trains will need plenty of fuel to run roughshod over vigorous opposition along its tracks. Guess where the funds will come from — the P45.8-billion presidential pork barrel, of course!
With inflation in the Philippines already running at the 12% level, would it be a surprise if it approaches the 20% level sometime next year, with billions of pesos to be dispersed to allies and politicians, local officials, barangay leaders, and voters willing to cash in on Arroyo’s lust for power?
If the three cha-cha trains are derailed again, for some reason, then the warnings of Justice Panganiban, former Secretary Cruz, former Justice Isagani Cruz, Binay and Roxas must come to mind. Arroyo is so obsessed with holding on to power, it is not far-fetched that she would resort to declaring martial law, as Marcos did in 1972.
This petite lady, who glows in the title Iron Lady, has patterned many of her illegal actions to those done by former President Ferdinand Marcos, it seems inevitable that she would repeat the most horrible act of the late dictator, and that was when he declared martial law after failing to get a constitutional nod to extend his term.
I do not wish to cast gloom on the already sad state of our beloved homeland, but we need to be vigilant against any attempt to use the people’s money to thwart the country’s constitution.
valabelgas@aol.com