WHEN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening of the Winter Olympics last February 4, little did anyone suspect that it would lead to the beginning of a strategic partnership between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was then that the two leaders would fashion out a lengthy 99-paragraph joint statement that detailed how they have come to adopt “shared positions” on a range of global issues. Or could it be that there were preliminary negotiations before they got together at the inauguration of the 2022 Olympics? Nobody could have come up with a joint statement that long and had it finalized within a few hours. No way!
The crux of the voluminous joint statement boils down to creating a “long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe” that Russia and China mutually support. In addition, they “oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries.” Clearly, what they’re proposing is to prevent NATO from expanding further east that would take Ukraine within its protective umbrella under Article 5, which is “An attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all members.”
By the same token, Russia supports China’s view of the Indo-Pacific and the illegitimacy of the U.S. role there. This is manifested in the joint statement, which says that they are “against the formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region and remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy on peace and stability in the region.”
ASEAN solidarity
Immediately, one can surmise that this is in reference to the U.S.’s attempt to solidify its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is slowly metastasizing into a NATO-like organization, particularly due to the common fear among the ten ASEAN members that the rise of China would sooner or later pose a great danger to their sovereignty.
Indeed, ASEAN members have begun to sign defense treaties with one another as well as with the U.S. Could it be that it’s just a matter of time before ASEAN would evolve into a security alliance, a Pacific NATO?
War on two fronts
The question is: How is the U.S. going to deal with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while maintaining its obligation to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion?
It’s a tough situation. However, the U.S. had been there before, fighting two theaters of war at the same time: the war in Europe against Germany and the war in the Pacific against Japan. And America emerged victorious from both wars.
But it’s not going to be easy. Casualties from both sides will be heavy. But U.S. and NATO superiority would prevail over the Russian invaders. A large contingent of Ukrainian troops – which number around 255,000 active personnel and more than 900,000 reserve personnel – can be deployed immediately. The Russians would also have to deal with armed militias who would have the capability to wage guerilla warfare. The Russians will be attacked from all sides.
Today, as war looms ahead in Ukraine and Taiwan, the U.S. is prepared as ever before. More than likely, war will erupt first in Ukraine where 190,000 Russian troops are poised to break through the border into Ukrainian territory. In a blitzkrieg fashion, they’d probably reach Kyiv, the capital, within days.
Although President Joe Biden promised that the U.S. and NATO will come to the aid of Ukraine if attacked, there is no timeline as to how soon would assistance arrive? Will it arrive before the Russians take Kyiv?
Many are apprehensive that NATO military aid might not arrive on time to prevent the fall of Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that the U.S. and NATO should send troops now that the Russian troops, tanks, and missiles are just steps away from the border. He also suggested that the sanctions should start now. Why wait until the country is overrun? Biden should – nay, must – act now! Impose severe sanctions and mobilize NATO forces to cross into Ukraine once Russian invasion has begun. Or does it seem like Biden is still in “withdrawal” mode, still having a head-banging hangover from what he did in Afghanistan?
Divide the world
In the final analysis, one wonders what are Putin and Xi thinking? Do they want to take over the entire world, just like Spain and Portugal did in the New World, when they signed the Treaty of Tordesillas on June 7, 1494? They divided the newly discovered lands outside Europe between the Portuguese Empire and the Spanish Empire, by drawing a north-to-south line of demarcation in the Atlantic Ocean, about 345 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of northwestern Africa. All lands west of that line were claimed by Spain. Spain also claimed all of South America except Brazil, which was claimed by Portugal. That’s the reason why Brazil is the only Portuguese-speaking country in South America all the way up to California, Mexico, and Central America. The Philippines was supposed to be claimed by Portugal but they made a mistake and Spain ended up claiming the Philippines.
With the emerging Russo-Sino Axis of Power, the map of the world would change with Europe ending within Russia’s sphere of influence and Asia within China’s sphere of influence. But then, who knows, in people’s mindset today, the days of the empires were long gone. Of all the world’s empires, none has survived. They all collapsed at some point in time. We have seen the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Vladimir Putin had lamented. “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century,” he once said. “It became a genuine tragedy for the Russian people. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” He was referring to Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union before the disintegration of the Soviet Empire. Now, Ukraine wishes to become part of NATO. That’s unthinkable. He already lost the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – that were once parts of the Soviet Empire, and who jumped over the crumbling Iron Curtain to join NATO. He was helpless – and powerless — to protest.
But today, Putin vowed that he’s not going to let it happen again. He’s got the nuclear weapons to threaten Europe with annihilation, not knowing that it would also destroy his beloved Mother Russia – and his $200 billion stashed away for his retirement — because America would strike back with an equal amount of nuclear power. Is Putin going to risk a mutually assured destruction? I don’t think so. He might be crazy but he’s not stupid.
What Putin is trying to do is bluff his way to winning by going all in with his nuclear chips. At the end of the day, the Russo-Sino Axis of Power is on the verge of world dominion; that is, if Biden decides that he cannot risk American lives and fold his hand even though he has the winning hand. Yes, that’s how winners lose in a game of international poker.