After a long layoff, the disputed Spratlys islands in the South China Sea are back in the news again.
Last month, US State Secretary Hilary Clinton set the tone for the renewed interest in the group of mostly uninhabited islands and coral reefs, which are being disputed by six countries, including China and the Philippines, when she told a conference of Southeast and East Asian ministers that the United States had a “national interest” in seeing the territorial disputes resolved through a “collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants.”
While stressing that US remained neutral on which country has a stronger claim to the islands, Clinton said that the US has an interest in free shipping on the South China Sea and would help facilitate multilateral talks on the issue.
China was expectedly outraged by Clinton’s remarks. A Chinese defense official said that Clinton’s remarks were an unwelcome attempt at the “internationalization” of a territorial issue involving the Spratly and Paracel chains. Even as the Chinese spokesman made the statement, Chinese news media reported a large-scale military exercise near the disputed islands.
The official said that China will push for resolution of the issue with “relevant countries,” but reiterated that China has “indisputable sovereignty” over the islands. Parts or all of the two chains – which are believed to have oil and gas deposits – are also claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan.
Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the US Pacific Command followed up Clinton’s remarks during a visit in Manila last week by saying that while Washington does not take sides in the disputes, it will oppose any use “of force or any forms of coercion to stake these claims on the part of any single nation at the expense of the others.”
These exchange of words coincided with a show of force between the superpower United States and emerging world power China in Southeast Asia. During the period, the US conducted joint military and naval exercises with South Korea and Vietnam, the latter a most unlikely but now willing ally, while China staged theirs with North Korea.
The conflict between the Americans and the Chinese in the region is expected to escalate in the coming years as China builds up its military presence in Asia to gain control of the important South China Sea shipping lanes, the rich fishing grounds in the area, and the vast oil deposits estimated at 18 billion tons underneath the disputed territory as the world’s second biggest economy prepares to become a military power, too.
The Americans, on the other hand, need to reestablish their domination over Southeast Asia, which is fast becoming a very important focal point in both world economy and politics.
In this brewing conflict, the Philippines is certain to be caught in the middle. Among the six claimants, the Philippines is nearest to the islands; in fact, the southernmost tip of Palawan is just 136 miles off Mischief Reef, where the Chinese have built a military installation. And although officially the US has no bases in the Philippines, it can use either the Mutual Defense Treaty or the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) to launch any counter-attack against the Chinese from the country.
AFP chief Lt. Gen. Ricardo David Jr. admitted last week that the country has no military might to stop foreign aggression in the disputed islands. But the general made the admission in the presence of Admiral Willard, as if hinting that the American troops would be on hand to help the country defend its claim to the islands in case of any foreign attack.
It must be stressed that the brewing US-China conflict in the region comes at a time when the country is looking to both the US and China for assistance in putting the Philippine economy back on track. The Philippines needs the billions of dollars that China is willing to dole out to the country. On the other hand, it also needs the usual economic and military assistance that the US normally dole outs to allies.
Obviously, the US-China conflict would create a dilemma for Philippine national leaders, particularly President Aquino, who is scheduled to visit the US this month to attend both the United Nations General Assembly and a summit meeting of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with President Obama in New York on Sept. 24.
The country can not openly show its affection for the US, its long time ally, without losing China’s own affection, which could mean the loss of billions of dollars in grants, loans and assistance to put the country back on its feet. On the other hand, the Philippines can not just turn its back on more than a century of close ties with the United States.
President Aquino will be tiptoeing as he traverses the difficult path of maintaining relations with the world’s two biggest economies in the coming months.
During her time, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo deftly played the emerging power struggle between the US and China to obtain funding for her numerous dubious deals. While getting her billions from China, Arroyo allowed US troops to virtually maintain a military base in Mindanao in the guise of anti-terrorist training or military exercise.
In February 2008, Malaya publisher Amado “Jake” Macasaet accused Arroyo and former Speaker Jose V. de Venecia of having committed treason in entering into a so-called “Spratly Deal” with Beijing in exchange for loans attended by bribery and corruption. Macasaet said he was told by a source that under the “Spratly Deal,” China would be allowed to explore territorial waters of the Philippines.
“This is treason because the pact has the effect of giving away Philippine sovereignty to a foreign country. In return, Chinese-owned firms provide the Philippines with overpriced loans for numerous projects,” he said.
In the same month, Far Eastern Economic Review’s Barry Wain accused Arroyo of selling out to China the Philippine and regional interests in the South China Sea.
Wain argued that Arroyo violated a 2002 regional agreement that called on Asean member-states to deal with China as a bloc on the six-country Spratly Islands dispute.
Wain said that during Arroyo’s state visit to China in 2004, the two countries signed the “Agreement for Seismic Undertaking for Certain Areas in the South China Sea By and Between China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Philippine National Oil Company” which, Wain said, angered Vietnam.
The articles of Macasaet and Wain should explain why Arroyo was able to obtain billions of dollars in loans to finance various projects, including the highly anomalous $329-million NBN deal, the questionable $460-million cyber-education project, the $500-million North Rail project, the disadvantageous 19 fisheries and agriculture projects totaling $4.9 billion, and many more dubious deals.
These highly anomalous deals were exposed one by one, and China remained quiet amid the furor.
Aquino can play his cards as deftly as Arroyo did. But even without the accompanying corruption, he can get burned as did Arroyo. In any three-way love affair, the one in the middle – the one who plays with fire — always gets burned.
The conflict between the US and China will someday come to a head. Where the Philippines would be when that time comes will depend on how Aquino plays his card.