WITH the formal declaration of Senators Grace Poe and Chiz Escudero that they are running for president and vice president, respectively, under what they call Partidong Pilipinas, the presidential landscape for the May 2016 elections is finally taking shape.
Three candidates — Vice President Jejomar Binay, Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Poe — have so far made formal their desire to seek the presidency, possibly making next year’s presidential elections the one with the least major contenders in the post-martial law era. However, I wouldn’t bet on that until after the October 16 deadline for the filing of candidacy.
For one, despite his supposedly final decision not to run for the presidency in 2016, many still believe, including this writer, that Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte would suddenly announce that he couldn’t ignore the “growing clamor” for him to run for the presidency and surface in the offices of the Commission on Elections to file his certificate of candidacy for president on or shortly before October 16. This man has a flair for drama and I wouldn’t be surprised if he declares that he would have to postpone his desire to retire from politics to respond to the people’s desire for change.
After Poe’s declaration, Duterte has now become the wild card in the country’s biggest political game. Whether he would run or not could affect the strategies of the three declared candidates and the plans of other potential candidates, including the selection of their running mates.
Sen. Bongbong Marcos, for example, has not made a final decision although he has made it clear he was interested in running for a higher office, which could only mean the presidency or the vice presidency. If Duterte decides to run for president, Marcos would probably settle for the vice presidency either with Duterte or Binay. If Duterte decides to be true to his word and retire from politics, Marcos would likely throw his hat into the ring, so to speak, and run for president under the Nacionalista Party (NP).
The NP would most probably support either Duterte or Marcos rather than become just another minority party of another political coalition. Although running as independents, Poe and Escudero are expected to get the support of business tycoon Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), to which Escudero belonged before he had a falling out with Cojuangco in 2009.
As soon as the NPC support became apparent, around 200 members of the now defunct administration coalition, most of them members of President Aquino’s Liberal Party, bolted and pledged allegiance to the NPC. The exodus of the “balimbings” was triggered by the continuous surge of Poe and Escudero in presidential and vice presidential surveys.
This week, the Social Weather Station (SWS) released a survey that said Poe has increased her lead among both possible presidential and vice presidential candidates, with Escudero coming second behind her among VP potentials.
The more interesting result in the survey was Roxas’ ascent to second place ahead of Binay, who had topped previous surveys until Poe passed him in the June surveys. Roxas jumped to a 39-percent share from 21 percent in June. Binay actually had a higher share at 35 percent from June’s 34 percent, but still slipped to third.
Poe’s share moved up to 47 percent from 42 percent in June. The survey was held one week after Aquino endorsed Roxas and before Poe declared her candidacy and Duterte said he was dropping out of the race. Duterte’s share dropped to 16 percent from 20 percent in June. The SWS respondents were asked to name three choices for president.
The Pulse Asia September survey, which many consider to be more accurate because the respondents are asked to name only one choice, is yet to be released.
Political strategists use these surveys only as guidance for future actions, but they know that the survey results wouldn’t matter much in the days leading to the election because these polls do not take into consideration the more important factors in winning elections, such as political base, machinery and funds.
All three declared presidential candidates, for example, do not have strong political base. Although Binay is from Metro Manila, residents of the metropolis come from different regions and can hardly count as a solid political base. Roxas is from the Visayas but outside of Capiz, he does not have strong support from other Visayas provinces. Poe, who has no known base being a political neophyte, topped the senatorial elections in 2013, but the presidency is a different matter since voters select only one candidate and not 12.
The two candidates with strong political bases have not formally declared their candidacy. They are Duterte, who has solid support in the Visayas and Mindanao, and Marcos, who counts on the so-called Solid North, the nationwide Ilocano vote and the 1-million strong Iglesia Ni Kristo vote, which has been reported to have told former President Joseph Estrada that the religious sect would support Marcos if he decided to run and would support Poe only if Marcos didn’t run.
If the two decides to team up, a Duterte-Marcos tandem could be a big threat to the three other candidates.
As for the machinery and funds, Roxas is backed by the incumbent administration and that would be a great advantage. Poe, on the other hand, would profit from the NPC support in terms of machinery and funds, the NPC being the second biggest political party next to the LP. On these two matters, Binay could be in a disadvantage.
Poe also has the advantage of having a strong running mate in Escudero, who is a very popular and accomplished politician and who commands the support of the two-million strong Bicolano vote. Roxas hopes to split the Bicolano vote by enticing the popular Rep. Leni Robredo of Camarines Sur to run as his vice president.
A four-cornered fight among Poe, Roxas, Binay and Duterte or Marcos would be a very tight race. Binay, who was considered a shoo-in until numerous corruption allegations were brought up against him, could surprisingly be the tail-ender in this four-cornered or even a three-cornered fight. Finding the right running mate and a strong senatorial line-up has become even more important and urgent to him.
With less than three weeks before the last day for the filing of candidacy, we can expect heightened political frenzy in the coming days.
(valabelgas@aol.com)