The eerie similarity between the events that led to the ouster of Honduras President Manuel Zelaya and the events leading to the May 2010 elections in the Philippines should serve as a warning to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to back off from any plan to remain in power beyond her constitutionally mandated term.
Zelaya was seized by soldiers and hustled aboard a plane to Costa Rica early Sunday, just hours before a rogue referendum Zelaya had called in defiance of the Honduran Supreme Court and Congress. His opponents said the referendum was an attempt to remain in power after his term ends Jan. 27.
The Honduran constitution limits presidents to a single four-year term, and Zelaya’s opponents feared he would use the referendum results to try to run again, just as Venezuelan President Chavez reformed his country’s constitution to be able to seek re-election repeatedly.
Sounds familiar? It does, because Zelaya’s moves are very similar to present moves of the Arroyo administration to change the constitution to allow her to remain in power beyond 2010. But there are also stark differences — Zelaya has been in office only four years while Arroyo has been in power for almost nine years; and unlike Zelaya, Arroyo holds a tight rein over the House of Representatives and the military, and perhaps, even the Supreme Court.
The Honduran Congress voted to accept what it said was Zelaya’s letter of resignation, with even the president’s former allies turning against him. Micheletti, who as leader of Congress is in line to fill any vacancy in the presidency, was sworn in to serve until Zelaya’s term ends. Micheletti belongs to Zelaya’s Liberal Party, but opposed the president in the referendum.
So who will play the role of Micheletti if a similar military coup is staged along the lines of the Honduran coup? Certainly not Speaker Prospero Nograles, he being the weak-kneed leader of Arroyo’s rah-rah boys. Will it be Vice President Noli de Castro, who, although not belonging to Arroyo’s party, is the constitutional successor to Arroyo? Or will it be Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro?
But is a military coup against Arroyo a possibility at this time? It has long been held that except for a few officers who are now in detention, Arroyo has a tight grip on the military because of numerous perks that she has bestowed upon many active and retiring generals.
Indeed, a military coup is considered close to impossible. Unless, of course, Arroyo and her allies make a serious blunder which could trigger an uprising by generals and junior officers not very close to her or who remain loyal to the constitution.
One serious mistake, if it were true, is the alleged plot – reportedly codenamed Oplan (Operation Plan) August Moon — to force current AFP Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado to cut short his term and replace him with Army Commanding General Delfin Bangit, who is supposedly close to President Gloria Arroyo. It is known in military circles that Bangit favors charter change (cha-cha), which is being pushed by Arroyo’s allies in Congress to extend Arroyo’s term beyond 2010. The plan also allegedly involves the assumption of key military positions by members of Class of 1978 of the Philippine Military Academy, which is deemed extremely loyal to Arroyo and which has adopted Arroyo as an honorary member.
This would also be considered a military coup, but one that is reportedly supported by Arroyo and perhaps, even instigated by Arroyo’s aides. The covert operation is supposed to begin in August and end in October, when they hope to pressure Ibrado to resign.
It is not coincidental that even as details of the Oplan August Moon began to surface, bombs were either exploded or found in three areas in Metro Manila. On Monday, a bomb was found at the Department of Agriculture (DA) in Quezon City, a day after the Office of the Ombudsman, also in Quezon City, was bombed.
A “suspicious package” was also found outside a condominium across Ateneo de Manila University along Katipunan Avenue in Quezon City. Arroyo and her family had once occupied a penthouse suite at the condominium – the One Burgundy Plaza.
It is also alarming to note that all these events are happening even as the possibility of the Commission on Elections reverting to manual counting became a stark possibility with the withdrawal of the winning bidder in the automation of the 2010 elections, just a little more than 11 months before the May polls.
Several senators, especially Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, and Senators Dick Gordon, Chiz Escudero and Kiko Pangilinan, Church leaders and even Comelec Chairman Jose Melo have warned that a failure of elections could lead to a revolution, either coming from the people or from the administration itself.
Gordon was the more pessimistic. He warned that if there were a failure of elections in May 2010, legally there would be no president, no vice president, no Senate president, no Speaker, no congressmen and only 12 holdover senators. The Arroyo administration, backed by the military, or the military, without the backing of Arroyo, could seize the opportunity to form a revolutionary government, nullify the constitution and remain in power indefinitely.
Indeed, the coming months leading to May 2010 would be critical to the Philippines and the Filipino people. All indications point to an obsession by Arroyo to remain in power beyond her constitutionally mandated term, either because of greed or because of an instinct to protect herself from certain prosecution for various anomalies and abuses committed during her nine-year tenure.
We should have known by now that Arroyo is not the fragile, innocent lady that she appears to be, but a shrewd, cunning politician that has managed to remain in power despite numerous threats to her rule, and despite the obvious dislike for her by the Filipino people. Her every step is apparently a calculated one, a part of a grander scheme of things. Even her numerous travels and her choice of the places she visits are part of her plans for her future, either inside or outside Malacanang.
Political pundits talk of Arroyo’s Plan A or Plan B or Plan C, but one thing is sure — all these are aimed at remaining in power beyond 2010, and if that fails, to get out of the legal reach of Philippine prosecutors.
It is important that people remain vigilant, and watch her every step, preferably in a microscopic way, leading to May 2010 and perhaps even beyond. Arroyo could launch her final bid to stay in power anytime between now and shortly after the May 2010 polls.