MANILA
…The Philippine economy grew by 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013, besting all other Asian nations, including sizzling-hot China. It’s also the highest growth rate so far in President Benigno Aquino III’s tenure.
Manufacturing and the construction sector led the way in the unprecedented growth. Government and consumer spending also helped.
Behind the Philippines were China, which grew by 7.7 percent, Indonesia 6 percent, Thailand 5.3 percent, and Vietnam 4.9 percent.
Mr. Aquino has been on a roll lately. In the May 13 elections, nine of his candidates for senator won, trumping the opposition, which only won three senate seats. Although the results in the local contests (for congressmen, governor, mayor and town/city councils) were mixed for the President, winning the senate was crucial for him because the positive outcome will help him control the national agenda for the next three years until he steps down in 2016.
Naturally, the President and his team were elated by the election outcome, which blunted the high popularity of the vice president, Jojo Binay, who has announced that he will run for president in 2016. Binay, a long-time ally of the President’s mother, the late former President Cory Aquino, has placed himself on the side of political opponents of Mr. Aquino.
In a disingenuous fashion, Binay has been talking from both sides of his mouth, in one breath saying he’s not in opposition against Aquino, but in another campaigning for candidates who have been critical of the President. Obviously, Binay is walking a tightrope because the President is very popular (Binay gets slightly higher popularity poll numbers than Aquino) and he doesn’t want to alienate the President himself and his political base.
But, because he’s also popular, Binay has peeked into the horizon and it looks bright, his prospects of winning the presidency are good, and he’s playing his cards rather carefully.
In this sense, Binay is savvy. He’s been a political operator since the mid-1980s when the battle to topple then Dictator Ferdinand Marcos came to full throttle. Binay was one of the young upstarts who gravitated toward Cory Aquino, who was seen then as the only national figure who could rally the people against Marcos (which she did, becoming president in 1986). Being politically astute, Binay is nursing his current popularity and he hopes to ride the wave toward a presidential victory in 2016.
Mr. Aquino (PNoy to the media, Noynoy to his family) will not be anointing Binay as his presidential bet in 2016. His anointed will be former senator and current interior secretary Mar Roxas, who gave way so Aquino could run for president in 2010.
But 2016 is an eternity away. What happens between now and then will have a tremendous impact on whom between Roxas and Binay will become president. The current orthodoxy says that Binay has front-runner status. But that’s just it: front-runner, not a cinch. (Incidentally, Marcos’s son, Senator Ferdinand Jr., is rumored as also casting a moist eye on the presidency and may run in 2016 too, which is another piece of bad news for the country.)
The recent good news (which also includes the Philippines getting investment-grade marks from global economic rating agencies) gives Aquino a firmer handle on things. The challenge to him and his administration is how to keep coming up with positive results, enough for the people to appreciate and to give their blessing when the time comes to vote for Aquino’s successor in 2016.
Part of the challenge is how to silence the usual critics who always see the glass as half-empty instead of half-full. As is their usual wont, the naysayers here threw cold water on the Aquino administration’s party mood over the 7.8 percent first-quarter economic growth. But the growth hasn’t reached the poor, they snorted.
Of course, they’re right; the economic growth hasn’t fully benefited everyone in the country, for that takes time. And they’re right to point that out. But their way of challenging the Aquino administration is too negative. Why not congratulate the administration for its feat and then challenge it to do better, instead of simply dismissing the growth as not reaching all? It’s still growth, after all. Why the killjoy attitude? (It’s because they never liked Aquino in the first place and don’t want him to succeed and be popular.)
Politicians and their operatives who have an agenda that is in conflict with Mr. Aquino’s (like a Binay presidency in 2016) have been working to undermine Aquino’s performance and popularity. That is evident in, for example, letters to newspaper editors that always present a dim view of the President’s actions, even his successes. But they remain a small minority, as shown by surveys that show Aquino as still very popular. Expect the demolition work of those opposed to him to escalate in the near future and especially in the two years preceding the 2016 presidential election.
Meantime, Aquino has got his work cut out for him: how to consolidate his successes so far and continue to build on them.
It’s important to clarify that the 7.8 percent growth is only for the first quarter of 2013. So many things could happen between now and year-end to demolish such gain. The Philippines is a regular destination for climatic disturbances and other natural calamities such as typhoons and flooding that wreak havoc on infrastructure, crops, manufacturing, private property, and the everyday conduct of business, trade and commerce. Such destruction, in turn, has a tremendous impact on the overall economy.
So, the phenomenal growth in one quarter could be wiped out if disasters come and visit the country and sow massive destruction. Overall, the Philippine economy is expected to grow this year by six to seven percent, which would still be a great accomplishment.
But poverty is still widespread, and the government will have to stimulate further investments into the economy, more government and private-sector spending in infrastructure, more money-churning activity like tourism, increased productivity in manufacturing, higher agricultural output (which has been very low in recent years), as well as more consumer spending (which, ironically, has been relatively robust lately despite a high jobless rate).
So, it’s worth remembering that there’s still two-and-one-third quarters on the 2013 calendar and the government must ensure that all cylinders are working to enable the country to finish the year with a high annual growth rate. It’s in Mr. Aquino’s interest to keep whipping up his men and women in the Cabinet in order to maintain high productivity. And this is where the carping of the opposition serves a purpose in keeping Aquino on his toes. But criticism must be constructive and not destructive or obstructionist. Critics sometimes forget that we all live in the same country and what’s good for the country is good for all.
Aquino is not yet on a legacy mode — meaning, working on earning a good place for himself in history. That will come in the homestretch of his term. What he needs to do at this time is to ensure positive economic growth, no major scandals, better handling of emergencies (like the unfortunate mishandling of a hostage-taking of Hongkong tourists in his first year in office), and the perception that every one of his people, including him, is hard at work to improve the lives of the people. At the very least, the people expect him to be successful in the last of the preceding enumeration.
***